The sweeping victory across the state—Mr. Trump is below the critical 50% threshold in just four of the state’s 27 congressional districts—eliminated rival Sen. Ted Cruz from having any mathematical chance of winning the nomination outside of a contested convention. It left Mr. Trump as the only candidate who can become the party’s nominee without a floor fight in Cleveland.
Mr. Trump would claim all of New York’s delegates if he won 50% of the statewide vote, a mark he surpassed easily, and 50% of the vote in each congressional district, a threshold he will nearly meet.
No matter his delegate haul in New York, a series of potential potholes remain on Mr. Trump’s road to the GOP nomination. He must win 64% of the bound delegates—those obligated to support a particular candidate on the first convention vote—that remain in the 15 states yet to hold primaries.
If Mr. Cruz prevails in a series of May contests in Indiana, Nebraska, Washington and Oregon, he can stop Mr. Trump from reaching 1,237 delegates and send the Republican contest to a desperate scramble for unbound delegates and a multiple-ballot scenario unseen since Thomas E. Dewey won the party’s 1948 nomination on the third ballot.
Even with his convincing win in the New York primary, Mr. Trump will be forced to fight state-by-state for delegates through the end of the GOP nominating calendar on June 7, when California’s 172 delegates will be at stake. Mr. Trump just began hiring California staff this month, once new top aide Paul Manafort took control of most campaign operations.
Mr. Trump now has at least 845 delegates, some 392 short of the 1,237 needed for the nomination.
After being shut out of delegates in New York, Mr. Cruz remains 678 bound delegates short of 1,237, with 625 left to be awarded. But his campaign believes his total is more than the 559 bound delegates he has won, because Mr. Cruz triumphed in a series of recent state party conventions that name delegates and is likely to inherit delegates who are now allotted to former candidates, such as Sen. Marco Rubio.
In his victory remarks Tuesday night, Mr. Trump acknowledged that he has been outfoxed by the Cruz forces and warned unbound delegates who could swing the nomination away from him not to do so.
“Nobody should get delegates unless they get those delegates from voters and voting,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s a crooked system; it’s a system that’s rigged. We’re going to be going back to the old ways: You get votes and you win.”
At the same time, Mr. Trump’s campaign is preparing to put up a fight for unbound delegates in Pennsylvania, a task that Mr. Trump’s allies have failed to accomplish in a series of states in the last month. The jockeying over the Keystone State’s convention-goers is expected to be fierce, because 54 of 71 delegates to Cleveland won’t be bound to any candidate. Potential delegates’ presidential preferences won’t be noted on the Pennsylvania ballot.
Mr. Trump’s campaign has a support network in Pennsylvania that he hasn’t had elsewhere. Two members of the state’s congressional delegation back Mr. Trump—Reps. Lou Barletta and Tom Marino.
“I know Tom, and I will do everything we can to make Pennsylvania the most successful,” Mr. Barletta said Tuesday. “I might not have said this three weeks ago, but I am very satisfied that there is an organization in place and a plan.”
The campaign of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who appeared poised to win three or four delegates from New York, proffered the argument late Tuesday that Mr. Cruz’s weakness in the northeast means that Mr. Kasich is the only Republican who can stop Mr. Trump. Five Trump-friendly, Acela corridor states from Maryland to Rhode Island vote on April 26.
Mr. Kasich’s chief strategist, John Weaver, circulated a memo calling for the super PACs devoted to blocking Mr. Trump to “get serious” in upcoming states.
“They weren’t serious in New York and allowed Trump to get over 50 percent in numerous districts where he could have been stopped. Continued lack of engagement by Never Trumpers could allow the Trump campaign to get back on track,” Mr. Weaver wrote.
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